Climate Change and Its Impact on Crop Health in the Sagar Region: A Study of Temperature and Rainfall Variability (2010–2025)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of climate variability on crop health and disease incidence over a 15-year period. Meteorological data from 2010 to 2025 were analysed alongside GIS-based disease mapping and soil health assessments to examine the link between climate parameters and emerging crop diseases.Field-based observations were supplemented with interviews from 100 local farmers across eight representative villages to understand the perceived and experienced changes in crop productivity, disease occurrence, and adaptation strategies. Results show an approximate 0.9°C increase in the annual average temperature over the study period, coupled with inconsistent rainfall—characterized by delayed monsoons, unseasonal showers, and increased frequency of dry spells. These fluctuations have significantly contributed to the increased prevalence of plant diseases such as Fusarium wilt in pulses, Alternaria blight in mustard, and bacterial wilt in solanaceous crops.About 68% of the farmers reported reduced yields linked to new or more severe disease outbreaks, and 74% expressed concern over the rising cost of pest and disease management. Spatial GIS analysis further revealed disease spread into previously unaffected areas. The findings underscore the urgent need for region-specific climate adaptation strategies, integrated disease management, and predictive weather-disease models to support sustainable agriculture in the Sagar region.

Introduction

Climate change is significantly impacting agriculture, especially in vulnerable regions like Sagar, Madhya Pradesh, India. Over 2010–2025, the area experienced a 0.9°C rise in average temperature and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns, including delayed monsoons and heavy, irregular rain events. These changes have intensified crop diseases such as Fusarium wilt, Alternaria blight, and bacterial wilt by creating favorable conditions for pathogens through altered temperature, moisture, and soil health.

A mixed-methods study combining meteorological data analysis, GIS disease mapping, soil testing, and farmer interviews found:

• A marked increase in disease prevalence and geographical spread.

• Reduced crop yields, with farmers reporting up to 68% linking yield losses to climate-induced disease outbreaks.

• Increased costs due to higher pesticide and fungicide use.

• Limited farmer awareness and access to climate-resilient practices.

Soil assessments revealed higher moisture and lower organic carbon in diseased fields, aiding pathogen growth. GIS mapping showed diseases spreading to new areas and cropping zones.

Statistical analysis confirmed significant links between climate variability and crop yield reduction as well as increased disease severity.

The study highlights urgent needs for integrated disease management, climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems, and better extension services to support farmer adaptation and sustainable agriculture in semi-arid, rainfed farming systems vulnerable to climate change.

Conclusion

This study underscores the significant influence of climate variability on crop health and disease dynamics in the Sagar region of Madhya Pradesh over the period 2010–2025. The observed rise in mean annual temperature by approximately 0.9°C and the increasing irregularity of rainfall—marked by delayed monsoons, dry spells, and unseasonal showers—have created conducive conditions for the emergence and spread of major plant diseases such as Fusarium wilt, Alternaria blight, and bacterial wilt. These changes are not only ecological but also socio-economic in nature, as evident from the experiences of 100 interviewed farmers who reported declining yields, rising input costs, and reduced predictability in crop performance.GIS-based disease mapping revealed a clear geographic expansion of disease-affected zones, while soil health analysis linked these outbreaks with high moisture content and reduced organic matter in cultivated lands. The lack of early-warning systems and region-specific disease management practices further compounds the vulnerability of smallholder farmers.The findings advocate for an urgent shift toward climate-resilient agriculture, emphasizing integrated disease management (IDM), development of resistant crop varieties, and implementation of localized climate advisory systems. Moreover, empowering farmers with timely information, affordable technologies, and institutional support is vital to enhancing adaptive capacity.In conclusion, climate change is not a distant threat but a present and growing challenge to agricultural sustainability in the Sagar region. A multi-disciplinary, evidence-based approach involving climatology, plant pathology, GIS analytics, and community engagement is essential for safeguarding crop productivity and rural livelihoods in the face of ongoing climate perturbations.

References

[1] Bebber, D. P., Ramotowski, M. A. T., & Gurr, S. J. (2013). Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 3(11), 985–988. [2] Bhadwal, S., Kelkar, U., & Sharma, H. (2013). Climate change and agriculture in Madhya Pradesh. TERI. [3] Chakraborty, S., & Newton, A. C. (2011). Climate change, plant diseases, and food security: An overview. Plant Pathology, 60(1), 2–14. [4] Chakraborty, S., & Tiedemann, A. V. (2020). Pathogen evolution in changing climate: How temperature influences resistance breakdown. Current Opinion in Plant Biology, 56, 39–45. [5] Coakley, S. M., Scherm, H., & Chakraborty, S. (1999). Climate change and plant disease management. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 37, 399–426. [6] Creswell, J. W., & Clark, V. L. P. (2017). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (3rd ed.). Sage Publications. [7] Garrett, K. A., et al. (2006). Climate change effects on plant disease: Genomes to ecosystems. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 44, 489–509. [8] Gornall, J., et al. (2010). Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365(1554), 2973–2989. [9] IMD. (2022). District-level climate data for Madhya Pradesh (2010–2022). India Meteorological Department. [10] IMD. (2022). District-level climate data for Madhya Pradesh. India Meteorological Department. [11] Jackson, M. L. (1973). Soil Chemical Analysis. Prentice Hall of India. [12] Joshi, P. K., et al. (2001). Impact of climate change on food grain production in India. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56(4), 761–781. [13] Kumar, V., Yadav, A. K., & Singh, D. (2020). Impact of climate variability on agricultural crops and pests. Journal of Agrometeorology, 22(2), 115–122. [14] Luck, J., et al. (2011). Climate change and diseases of food crops. Plant Pathology, 60(1), 113–121. [15] Mall, R. K., et al. (2006). Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: A review. Climatic Change, 78(2-4), 445–478. [16] MP-Agriculture Department. (2023). District agriculture reports: Sagar. Government of Madhya Pradesh. [17] Nabi, S. U., et al. (2021). Emerging plant diseases under changing climate. Environment and Ecology, 39(1), 148–152. [18] Patil, V. M., et al. (2017). Weather parameters and disease forecasting in mustard. Journal of Oilseed Research, 34(3), 168–174. [19] Prabhakar, S. V. R. K., et al. (2014). Climate resilient agriculture in Madhya Pradesh. IGES Discussion Paper. [20] Rosenzweig, C., et al. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century. Global Change Biology, 20(11), 3482–3495. [21] Savary, S., et al. (2019). The global burden of pathogens and pests on major food crops. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 3(3), 430–439. [22] Sharma, M., et al. (2020). Disease dynamics and climate linkages in solanaceous crops. Indian Phytopathology, 73(2), 325–331. [23] Singh, R., et al. (2018). Role of ICT in disease management and early warning. Agricultural Reviews, 39(1), 1–7. [24] Tripathi, A., et al. (2016). Climate Risk Management, 13, 1–10.

Copyright

Copyright © 2025 Deepshikha Nema, Ravikant Singh. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.