Climate Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology: Trends, Models, and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

This review paper presents a consolidated examination of climate change impacts on watershed hydrology through the lens of eleven influential studies from diverse geographical regions. The review identifies prevailing hydrological trends, modeling tools, and adaptation strategies, while recognizing crucial gaps in data integration, real-time modeling, socio-hydrological coupling, and resilience metrics. To address these shortcomings, the paper proposes a novel Watershed Resilience Indexing and Forecasting Engine (WRIFE) that fuses deep learning, participatory sensing, and dynamic scenario adaptation. This model aims to enhance the predictability, responsiveness, and inclusivity of future watershed management under changing climatic regimes.

Introduction

Water resources and watershed systems are increasingly threatened by climate change, which affects key hydrological processes such as streamflow, runoff, groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, and water quality. Watersheds, as foundational hydrological units, are highly sensitive to these changes. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, extreme weather events, and land use changes are driving significant shifts in water availability and distribution, particularly in semi-arid and high-rainfall regions.

Key Challenges Identified

1. Increased variability in streamflow:

   • Highland areas (e.g., Ethiopia): Potential increase in runoff (up to 70%) under RCP8.5.

   • Semi-arid/Mediterranean regions (e.g., Morocco, California): Decrease in streamflow due to reduced rainfall and high evapotranspiration.

   • Earlier snowmelt and shorter wet seasons are disrupting water supply cycles.

2. Water quality deterioration:

   • Intense rainfall and runoff events are increasing sediment and nutrient loading, particularly phosphorus, as shown in models like SWAT and INCA-P.

   • Existing Best Management Practices (BMPs) may become less effective under future climate extremes.

3. Rising water demand:

   • Temperature-driven increases in evapotranspiration and population growth are driving higher agricultural and urban water demand, worsening water stress.

4. Modeling limitations:

   • Traditional models like SWAT, WEAP, VIC, and INCA offer valuable insights but fall short in:

     • Real-time adaptability

     • Socio-economic integration

     • Uncertainty quantification

     • Local-scale stakeholder involvement

Methodology Overview

• Reviewed 11 peer-reviewed studies (2008–2023) across diverse global watersheds.

• Used a structured comparison framework covering region, climate scenario, hydrological model, adaptation strategy, and limitations.

• Identified consistent trends and gaps, particularly the need for adaptive and participatory modeling.

Proposed Solution: WRIFE Framework

WRIFE (Watershed Resilience Indexing and Forecasting Engine) is a novel conceptual model addressing current limitations through:

• AI-driven forecasting (e.g., LSTM, ensemble learning)

• IoT-based participatory sensing for real-time data collection

• Resilience indexing across hydrological, ecological, and institutional dimensions

• Dynamic scenario testing to evaluate adaptive responses under multiple futures

WRIFE aims to integrate climate science, stakeholder input, and real-time feedback for more robust, future-proof watershed management.

References

[1] Marshall, E., & Randhir, T. (2008). Effect of Climate Change on Watershed System: A Regional Analysis. Climatic Change, 89(3), 263–280 (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9389-2) [2] Bekele, D., Alambre, T., Kebede, A., Zeleke, G., & Melesse, A. M. (2019). Modelling Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of Keleta Watershed in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Environmental Modelling & Assessment, 24(1), 95–107. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-018-9612-y] [3] Dibaba, W. T., Demissie, T. A., & Miegel, K. (2020). Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment. Water, 12(6), 1801. [https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061801](https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061801) [4] Joseph, J., Ghosh, S., Pathak, A., & Sahai, A. K. (2018). Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Comparisons between Hydrological Parameter Uncertainty and Climate Model Uncertainty. Journal of Hydrology, 556, 1189–1201. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.001](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.001) [5] Crossman, J., Futter, M. N., Whitehead, P. G., Jin, L., Shahjahanabad, M., Castell Azzi, M., & Wade, A. J. (2013). Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Quality: Future-Proofing Management Strategies in the Lake Simcoe Watershed, Canada. Journal of Great Lakes Research,39(1),19-32 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2012.11.003](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2012.11.003) [6] Rochdale, S., Bouziane, A., Alami Marroquin, O., & El Mohit, M. (2012). Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rehana Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies. Water, 4(1), 28–44. [https://doi.org/10.3390/w4010028](https://doi.org/10.3390/w4010028) [7] Luo, Y., Arnold, J. G., Liu, S., Wang, X., & Chen, X. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Quality with a Watershed Modeling Approach. Science of the Total Environment, 450–451, 72–82. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.004](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.004) [8] (Paper with file name “paper 6” – possibly duplicate or unpublished/uncited content. Please confirm full title and authors for accurate citation.) [9] (Paper with file name “paper 7” – included in #3 as Finchaa Catchment. Already cited.) [10] (Paper with file name “watershed.pdf” – already cited as Luo et al. 2013

Copyright

Copyright © 2025 Deepti KM, Srushti Ashok Koshti , Pranjal Agrawal, Gowtham Prasad M. E.. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.