Growth and Instability in Area, Production and Productivity of Selected Kharif Crops in Akola District of Western Vidarbha Region

Abstract

The present study examines the growth performance and instability in area, production and productivity of selected kharif crops namely green gram, kharif jowar and kharif maize in Akola district of the Western Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. Secondary data covering the period from 1985 to 2024 were collected from District Statistical Abstracts and official government publications. To study structural changes, the period was classified into three sub-periods, one overall period and a current period. Compound Growth Rate (CGR) was estimated by fitting an exponential growth function, while variability and instability were analysed using the coefficient of variation and the Cuddy–Della Valle instability index, respectively. The results revealed that green gram experienced positive growth during the early period but showed a significant decline in area and production during the recent period. Kharif jowar exhibited a continuous decline in both area and production across all periods, indicating structural displacement. Maize recorded positive growth in production and productivity in the recent period but also showed extremely high instability. The study concludes that growth without stability is unsustainable and emphasizes diversification, climate-resilient technology adoption, irrigation expansion and crop insurance as key interventions for stabilizing farm income in the region.

Introduction

Agriculture in Maharashtra—especially in the drought-prone Vidarbha region and Akola district—is highly vulnerable to monsoon variability, limited irrigation, and climatic uncertainties. To understand sustainability in such rainfed systems, the study analyzes both growth and instability of selected kharif crops (green gram, kharif jowar, and kharif maize) over multiple time periods from 1985 to 2024. Growth was measured using compound growth rates, while instability was assessed using the Coefficient of Variation (CV) and the Cuddy–Della Valle Index (CDVI).

Key Findings

1. Growth Trends

• Green gram initially showed strong growth in area and production but later declined sharply. Productivity remained stagnant throughout, reflecting technological stagnation, weather vulnerability, and market risks.

• Kharif jowar experienced continuous negative growth in area and production across all periods, driven by crop substitution and low profitability. Productivity gains from early periods were not sustained.

• Maize demonstrated high growth in production and productivity in recent years, making it an attractive crop. However, this came with very high fluctuations, indicating significant risk.

2. Variability and Instability

• Green gram showed extremely high production instability (CV > 60%), largely due to rainfall dependence and inadequate irrigation. Productivity instability also increased in later periods.

• Kharif jowar displayed high instability despite declining cultivation area, suggesting rising climate-related vulnerabilities.

• Maize was the most unstable crop, with production CV exceeding 145% and very high CDVI values. This identifies maize as a high return–high risk crop sensitive to rainfall and market fluctuations.

Conclusion

Maize recorded highest growth but also highest instability, whereas jowar showed negative growth but persistent instability, indicating climatic stress across crops. Green gram showed fluctuating behaviour with moderate growth but high risk. Productivity stagnation is a critical concern across crops. Policy interventions should focus on promotion of drought-tolerant varieties, irrigation expansion and watershed development, minimum support price and procurement for pulses, subsidized crop insurance, crop diversification strategies, subsidise climate-resilient inputs and introduce price stabilization mechanisms for pulses.

References

Abhiram, D. and Soumya Prusty, 2020. Statistical Evaluation of Production Scenario of Kharif Pulse in Odisha, India. International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences, Vol. 9 (5) : 845-852. [2] Asha Bisht and A. Kumar, 2018. Growth and Instability Analysis of Pulses Production in India. International Journal of Agriculture Sciences, Vol. 10, (14) : 6722-6724. [3] Birhanu Ayalew and I. Sekar 2016. Trends and Regional Disparity of Maize Production in India. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, Vol. 8 (9) : 193-199 [4] Birthal, P. S., Negi, D. S., & Jha, A. K. (2015). Risk management in rainfed agriculture. Agricultural Economics Research Review. [5] Cuddy, J. D. A., & Della Valle, P. A. (1978). Measuring instability of time series data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 40(1), 79–85. [6] Government of Maharashtra. District statistical abstracts (various years). [7] Jagannath, N. V. Shende, P. M. Tayade, N. S. Nandeshwar, H. Khan and S. N. Vinodakumar, 2013. Growth and Instability in Agriculture: Western Vidarbha of Maharashtra. Ecology, Environment And Conservation, 19 (4) : 1-7. [8] Kaur Ramandeep, M. Malhi and G. Sandhya Kiran, 2015. Analysis of trends in area, production and yield of important crops of India. International Journal of Agronomy and Agricultural Research, Vol. 7 (1) :.86-92. [9] Tambe, P. C., Gavali, A. V., & Yadav, D. B. (2021). Growth and instability in soybean in Maharashtra. International Journal of Chemical Studies, 9(1), 3393–3395.

Copyright

Copyright © 2025 V. A. Tiwari, Dr. B. N. Ganvir, Dr. U. T. Dangore, Dr. Vinita Khobarkar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.