Population Projection and Demand-Based Design of Water Supply System at Banda

Abstract

The study reports hydraulic planning, demand based design and performance evaluation of a sustainable urban water supply system for Bandhavgarh town to serve its water demand till 2055. Four methods, namely Arithmetic Increase, Geometric Increase, Incremental Increase and Decadal Growth Rate were used to make population forecasts, and the Incremental Increase Method was adopted, which resulted in the design population of 57,333 for the ultimate year 2055. If per capita demand norm of 135 LPCD which is recommended by CPHEEO is adopted, the water demand would escalate from 5.87 MLD in 2025 to 8.59 MLD in 2055. Hydraulic adequacy for the entire design life was achieved by sizing all system components (intake structure, water treatment plant (WTP), transmission mains, elevated service reservoirs (ESR), and distribution network) for ultimate-year demands. The Hazen-Williams and Darcy-Weisbach equations were employed to perform the hydraulic performance analysis and to determine the correlation between pipe diameter, pipe head loss, and pipe flow velocity. Optimal pipe diameters for minimizing the total life cycle cost of pipes between CCGT and energy usage were found using the Present Worth Cost (PWC) method for economic optimization. Residual pressure analysis verified compliance with minimum pressure requirement of CPHEEO (7 m) at all nodes under the peak demand conditions, no negative pressure zones were found. Comparative assessment shows that there are significant enhancements in service indicators: supply from 77 LPCD to 135 LPCD, coverage from 44.01% to 100% and supply continuity from intermittent 1.5 hours per day to continuous 24 hours supply. The proposed system is technically feasible, has good hydraulic efficiency, and is socially sustainable.

Introduction

The text discusses the planning and redesign of an urban water supply system for Banda town, India, which is facing water scarcity due to population growth, aging infrastructure, and inadequate distribution. Currently, only about 44% of the population receives limited water supply, highlighting the need for system improvement.

The study focuses on forecasting population growth up to the design year 2055 and estimating future water demand to redesign the entire water supply system, including treatment, storage, and distribution networks. Hydraulic optimization is proposed to reduce losses, improve pressure, and ensure 24-hour continuous supply meeting CPHEEO standards (135 LPCD).

The literature review shows that accurate population projection is critical for water infrastructure planning, with methods like arithmetic, geometric, and incremental increase used for forecasting. Among these, the incremental increase method is selected as most suitable for medium-sized towns like Banda. Prior studies also emphasize the importance of hydraulic modeling tools (e.g., WaterGEMS), demand-based design, and continuous pressurized systems to improve efficiency and reliability.

The study identifies gaps in existing research, particularly the lack of integrated planning for medium-sized towns that combines population forecasting, treatment design, storage, and hydraulic modeling in one framework.

Methodologically, the study uses historical census data (1971–2011), ward-wise population distribution, and multiple projection methods to estimate future population. Based on analysis, the incremental increase method is adopted, estimating a design population of about 57,333 for 2055. Water demand is then calculated using CPHEEO norms, including allowances for population growth, floating population, and system losses.

Conclusion

In this paper an overall population projection and the demand based design of the water supply system of Banda town of Sagar District Madhya Pradesh has been presented. The population was analysed from data over the last 40 years of the Census (1971–2011) and the population was projected to 2055 by 4 standard methods, the most suitable for Banda\'s stabilising growth pattern being the Incremental Increase Method which gave a design population of 57,333 [6] [8]. Water demand was estimated at 5.87 MLD (2025), 7.22 MLD (2040), and 8.59 MLD (2055) at 135 LPCD per capita. The system components were designed for the maximum demand in the last year and hydraulic modelling using WaterGEMS V8i showed that sufficient residual pressures were maintained (7 m or above) at all nodes and there were no negative pressure areas [11].

References

[1] N. Agarwal, P. Srivastava, and R. Menon, \"Integrated urban water demand forecasting using hybrid statistical models,\" J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., vol. 150, no. 2, p. 04023089, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6001 [2] P. Sharma, R. Verma, and T. Singh, \"Population projection and demand assessment for urban water supply planning,\" J. Urban Water Manag., vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 1-12, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2024.001 [3] V. Bansal, M. Arora, and S. Kapoor, \"Climate-sensitive population forecasting for sustainable urban water infrastructure design,\" Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 92, p. 104489, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104489 [4] R. Patel, D. Chaudhary, and S. Meena, \"Assessment of population growth and water demand in medium-sized towns of India,\" Int. J. Urban Water Stud., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 25-34, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2023.025 [5] S. Verma, A. Gupta, and P. Kulkarni, \"Demand-based design of urban water supply system using CPHEEO guidelines,\" J. Civil Infrastruct. Water Eng., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 89-98, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2023.089 [6] R. Kumar, S. Verma, and P. Singh, \"Urban water supply planning based on population forecasting techniques,\" Int. J. Civil Eng. Res., vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 45-54, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/09726584221095002 [7] A. Singh, R. Yadav, and N. Srivastava, \"Population projection models for infrastructure planning in Indian cities,\" J. Municipal Eng. Plan., vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 201-210, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2021.201 [8] M. Joshi, A. Singh, and S. Tiwari, \"Evaluation of population forecasting methods for water supply projects,\" J. Water Supply Sanit., vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 233-241, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2019.233 [9] A. Malhotra, N. Gupta, and R. Mehra, \"Population forecasting techniques for municipal infrastructure,\" J. Infrastruct. Syst., vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 112-120, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000179 [10] S. Mishra, V. Tripathi, and A. Pandey, \"Urban water supply system design and performance analysis,\" Water Eng. Manag. J., vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 87-96, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2022.087 [11] P. S. Reddy, D. Kumar, and A. Sharma, \"Hydraulic performance assessment of urban water distribution systems under projected demand scenarios,\" Urban Water J., vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 587-599, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2023.2198702 [12] S. Jain, P. Agarwal, and V. Singh, \"Design optimization of water distribution networks under future demand growth,\" J. Hydroinformatics, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 987-1002, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2017.056 [13] A. Kulshreshtha, R. Singh, and V. Jain, \"Peak demand estimation and infrastructure sizing in Indian municipal water systems,\" J. Water Supply Res. Technol.-AQUA, vol. 70, no. 5, pp. 685-696, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2021.017 [14] K. Khatri and K. Vairavamoorthy, \"Challenges for urban water supply and sanitation in developing countries,\" Water Environ. J., vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 362-369, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12423 [15] D. Mehta, K. Shah, and H. Trivedi, \"Demand-oriented planning of urban water supply infrastructure,\" J. Sustain. Urban Dev., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 155-164, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2019.155 [16] M. Gokila Vani, K. Subramanian, and R. Kumar, \"System dynamics approach for urban water demand forecasting,\" Water Resour. Manag., vol. 30, no. 7, pp. 2105-2118, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1283-2 [17] World Health Organization (WHO), Guidelines for Drinking-Water Quality, 4th ed. Geneva: WHO Press, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241549950 [18] S. Rao, L. Kumar, and P. Ramesh, \"Effect of population growth on urban water supply schemes,\" J. Water Infrastruct. Dev., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 177-186, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2018.177 [19] P. Deshmukh, S. Patil, and R. Jadhav, \"Urban water supply design based on population forecast and demand analysis,\" J. Civil Eng. Urban Dev., vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 145-153, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2017.145 [20] S. Chatterjee, D. Mukherjee, and P. Roy, \"Urban water demand management and planning in India,\" Int. J. Water Resour. Dev., vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 589-603, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2021.1898736

Copyright

Copyright © 2026 Dev Kumar Patel , Ragini Mishra. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.